Live snapshot
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Market 18.66 vs NAV 5.23, premium 3.57x. Same shape as the post-launch pattern of 2021 OHM forks. Over time, BAM and bond sales likely pull price down toward NAV.
Genesis Phase 1 charges a 10% protocol fee at bond commit. The RBT users receive is backed at less than 1-to-1. Documented under docs Risks.
30-day bond TVL $165.0K, the largest of 7/14/30-day. Total bond pool $331.8K. Demand is tilting toward this tenor, which means the market is leaning toward holders willing to lock for longer.
Largest discount available. Bond effective entry is ~15.86 USDm, ~15.0% below live market 18.66 USDm (discount 15%).
Take delivery, stake to sRBT, then commit for 24 weeks (~15.8% reward). The natural next step after a bond matures.
Market sits at 3.57× NAV with no asymmetry. Re-evaluate when price falls under ~7.85 USDm (50% above NAV).
What needs to move for RBT to go up
Price decomposes into NAV × Premium multiple. Four drivers (NAV pump, sell pressure, lock ratio, bond maturity wave) refresh every second.
Meaningful capital is accumulating in bond pools. NAV is catching up steadily.
Buys/sells near 1:1 (1.00). 1h +0.00%.
Stake TVL $42K. 3.6% of FDV, lock ratio is still small.
Outstanding 17779 RBT. Maturity distribution gradually grows circulating supply.
NAV catch-up and sell pressure are balanced. BAM oscillates price at a fixed multiple above NAV. The next big move depends on exogenous triggers like Stake/Commit lock growth or external listings.
NAV itself is a static fallback (manually synced from the app's Metrics page), so the slow NAV-fill trend is not directly measured here. Signals are inferred from onchain bond balances, dexscreener live data, and static Stake TVL.
What is RBT's fair value
Not a single right price, but four price layers. Each layer is a different kind of fair, derived from different assumptions.
Reserves per RBT. If market price falls below this, BAM defends with buybacks and burns. The absolute floor.
Forward yield +25.5% reduced by reflexivity discount +25.0% → adjusted yield +19.2% added to NAV. NPV of one year of stake/commit distribution, risk-adjusted for Schelling weakening.
Market price × (1 − +15.0%). The effective cost per RBT received at maturity through the 30-day bond.
Current RBT/USDm market price.
- Floor NAV 5.23, the absolute floor.
- Fair Yield-adjusted 6.23, the reasonable upper bound for entry.
- Bond Effective 15.86, the last line for spot entry.
- Market 18.66, 3.57× NAV.
- Below Floor: BAM buy window is open and asymmetry is at its largest.
- Between Floor and Yield-fair: spot buying without a bond is fine.
- Between Yield-fair and Bond Effective: enter only through a bond.
- Between Bond Effective and Market: pass and wait for the next round.
Scenario where new capital inflow slows or (3,3) Schelling weakens. Cuts 25% off forward yield as a discount.
OHM-style game theory flipped to a death spiral the moment (3,3) Schelling broke, sells begat sells. Blackhaven structurally softens this with BAM's automatic two-sided arbitrage, but user behavior uncertainty remains. The reflexivity discount is a conservative cut to forward yield to price that uncertainty in. NAV (Floor) is unaffected since treasury backing supports it.
Live metrics: Reserves per RBT 5.23 USDm, Circulating 61,995 RBT, Market 18.66 USDm (last updated ...), Stake TVL $42,050. Forward yield is computed as a weighted sum of stake APR and annualized commit, refreshable via onchain or attestation.